U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) is encouraged that technology company Syngenta expects to have commercial-scale hard red spring (HRS) and hard red winter (HRW) hybrid wheat seed available for U.S. farmers within the next three years. Hybrid wheat’s primary value is demonstrated in increased yield and yield stability. Hybrids are viewed as means to increase profitability for growers and would be an important complement to pure-line varieties. Increased productivity is important to meet record-setting demands for wheat by a growing global population.

In a period when inflation has raised the cost of everything from fertilizers to shipping, groups representing agricultural producers and processors are calling for increased funding for two proven and long-standing export programs. The groups have asked Congress to double the funding for the Market Access Program (MAP) and the Foreign Market Development (FMD) Program, both of which have been operating at the same funding level for nearly 20 years even as demand for funding has increased. According to USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis Taylor, requests for MAP and FMD monies have far exceeded current funding.

Over the last few weeks, U.S. Wheat Associates has analyzed several factors that are shifting or have the potential to shift U.S. wheat value toward wheat importers. A combination of lower futures prices, a break in dry bulk freight prices, an increase in planted area, and the potential for a weaker dollar all point to a wheat market that has turned to favor buyers after two years of price risk. Though it is the most unpredictable of all the factors influencing U.S. wheat prices, the weather is arguably the most critical component in determining U.S. wheat production and price.

The Indian government could reduce its wheat harvest estimate as unseasonal showers and hailstorms led to sizable damage to the wheat crop in the Indian states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, sources in the agriculture ministry told S&P Global Commodity Insights. The agriculture ministry has decided to conduct a preliminary survey to assess the damage to the crop, an official at the ministry said.

Japan will continue its trend of planting more wheat and less rice in the 2023-24 marketing year, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA’s preliminary projections also have the shift from rice to wheat continuing in 2024-25. The USDA’s latest forecast sees wheat harvested area increasing by 3.5% and production rising 10% to 1.17 million tonnes in the upcoming marketing year, while rice acreage is projected to decline by 1.1% to 1.48 million hectares with output falling slightly to 7.45 million tonnes.

Russia said top agricultural commodities trader Cargill Inc. will stop exporting its grain, adding to uncertainty over the future of Black Sea crop shipments. As the biggest wheat exporter, Russian grain is vital to global crop trade and food supplies. A bumper harvest there last year helped wheat futures drop more than 40% from a record reached just after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Although Cargill is a big exporter of Russian wheat and a huge Western crop merchant, the government said the firm’s decision shouldn’t affect overall shipments from the country.

Morocco has emerged as the biggest export outlet for European Union wheat in 2022/23 as sales to other destinations have been curbed by revived Black Sea competition after war disruption eased. In a year marked by Russia's invasion of fellow grain exporter Ukraine, the EU sold heavily at the start of the July-June export campaign as importers sought alternatives to Black Sea grain. With increased import needs after a drought-hit harvest last year, Morocco became a bigger-than-usual outlet for EU wheat and has overtaken Algeria as the bloc's top destination.