Last week, commissioners and staff from the Idaho Wheat Commission (IWC) joined Lieutenant Governor Scott Bedke, Mr. Michael Chang, President of the Taiwan Flour Millers Association (TFMA), and Ms. May Lin, Director General of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Seattle, to sign a letter of intent important to the wheat industry.

Indonesia and Bangladesh, two major buyers of Canadian wheat, have signed agreements to significantly increase U.S. wheat imports—raising concerns for Canadian exporters. Indonesia will purchase one million tonnes annually, mostly soft wheat, while Bangladesh committed to 700,000 tonnes, directly competing with Canada’s hard red spring wheat. U.S. talks with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand add to the uncertainty, though Cereals Canada hopes its strengthened presence in the Indo-Pacific will help protect Canada’s market share.

Mexico’s growing population and strong feed demand will keep the country a major grain importer in 2025-26, according to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Wheat production is projected to fall 34% to just 1.7 million tons due to drought and low reservoir levels, pushing imports up 18% to 6.5 million tons. The U.S. remains Mexico’s top wheat supplier, with its market share climbing to 75%. Wheat consumption is forecast to increase 1% to 8.1 million tons, supported by population growth and tourism-related demand for bread, pasta, and baked goods. Mexico’s limited production capacity and rising consumption will sustain strong demand for U.S. grain exports, particularly wheat, corn, rice, and sorghum.

Leslie Edgar, the new J.R. Simplot endowed dean of the University of Idaho’s College of Agricultural and Life Sciences (CALS), is on a statewide listening tour, meeting with wheat growers and other stakeholders to understand their challenges and explore how the university can better support them through teaching, research, and Extension. Much of the wheat research conducted at U of I is funded by grower assessment dollars, focusing on solutions to on-farm problems. These investments support developing new wheat varieties, improving disease and pest management, evaluating soil health, and sustainability practices. Dean Edgar aims to “innovate Idaho” by ensuring university research delivers practical benefits—helping producers maximize profitability, strengthening rural communities, and serving the broader public.

Idaho and Taiwan signed a $1.2 billion, four-year letter of intent for U.S. wheat exports this week. Lt. Governor Scott Bedke, Commissioners and staff from the Idaho Wheat Commission, and representatives of Taiwan Flour Mills Association (TFMA) and Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO) attended the signing ceremony. Backed by wheat grower assessment dollars that support market development, this agreement builds on more than 60 years of strong partnership between the U.S. wheat industry and Taiwan. TFMA imports wheat on behalf of all 20 Taiwanese flour mills. Taiwan imports soft white, hard red spring, and hard red winter wheat, with Idaho supplying roughly 10% of the U.S. wheat exported each year.

A federal appeals court recently struck down the current administration’s use of “reciprocal tariffs” under an economic emergency declaration, but the ruling was paused pending Supreme Court review. The Court is moving quickly, with briefs beginning this week and oral arguments in November. For U.S. wheat, the case is unlikely to significantly affect exports or customer relationships. Reciprocal tariffs have had little direct impact on wheat, with China being the only importer to impose retaliatory tariffs — and its wheat trade with the U.S. ended before those tariffs were enacted. If reciprocal tariffs are repealed, benefits gained in markets like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Bangladesh are expected to remain, as these countries continue seeking ways to reduce trade deficits with the U.S.

Asian flour millers are stepping up purchases of U.S. wheat as competitive prices and shipping delays from the Black Sea shift demand toward American suppliers. Recent deals include about 500,000 tons to Indonesia, 250,000 tons to Bangladesh, and 100,000 tons to Sri Lanka, with buyers taking both soft white and hard red winter wheat. U.S. wheat is being sold at around $270–$275 per metric ton, making it attractive compared to alternatives. Millers in Vietnam are now considering U.S. wheat, and longer-term commitments are also growing: Indonesia has agreed to import at least 1 million tons annually from 2026–2030, while Bangladesh committed to 700,000 tons a year starting in July.