Though futures markets already have priced in uncertainty tied to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, grain markets the world over will truly begin to feel the impact of supply deficits on the global wheat and corn balance sheets beginning in August and September.  How a global wheat supply deficit of 3 million tonnes plays out is largely dependent on how the rest of the world treats Russia financially.  Ukraine, one of the biggest countries in Europe and the 45th largest in the world, features a land area roughly the size of the US Central states stretching from Chicago, Illinois, US, to New York City, from Toronto, Ontario, Canada, to Raleigh, North Carolina, US. Half of that land is devoted to agricultural endeavors that employ about 15% of the population compared with 3% of the US population. Wheat is produced throughout Ukraine, but most production takes place in the eastern areas, currently a hot spot for fighting, Lardy said. That’s unfortunate for grain since the region is a key southerly logistical route for crops to ocean-going ports, which are closed indefinitely and will require extensive rebuilding.

Ukraine grain a 'big-time next-year problem'