Third-generation farmer and first-generation agronomist Michael Navarrete is quick to identify The Soil Doc’s fastest-growing segment. “Drones, without a doubt,” he said. “The interest has skyrocketed since last season.” Navarrete started his business in 2021 in the Idaho-Oregon border area. He offers crop consulting, turf care and drone-based application of chemicals and cover-crop seeds. He also grows and sells micro greens and sprouts, and farms 18 acres of field corn.

Idaho Wheat Commissioner Cliff Tacke brings a lifetime of experience on the family farm to a job that will connect him to ports around the world. Cliff, who lives between Grangeville and Greencreek, said as a member of the wheat commission he hopes to help Idaho growers stay ahead in a competitive global market. “I don’t have a particular agenda — no ax to grind, that’s for sure,” Tacke said of his expectations of being on the state commission. “I just intend to make sure that (the goals of the commission) keep getting done because we need to do all of those things to keep our markets viable and buyers educated about why they should buy our product rather than somebody else’s product."

An estimated 80% of world trade is transported via ship. Maritime trade is most vulnerable to disruption at a series of geographic chokepoints across the globe (Figure 1). Some chokepoints are human-built canals, which provide extremely valuable shortcuts to connect the world’s oceans, and others are naturally narrow points between bodies of water. In recent months, water level issues at the Panama Canal and attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, specifically around Bab el-Mandeb, have severely limited trade through two of the world’s most important passages. This Market Intel does a deep dive on these twin issues, which have compounded to create major headaches for global trade.

Over the last year, world wheat prices have trended steadily lower, continuing their fall from the highs hit in May of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Ample wheat stocks from Russia and record exports flowing from the Black Sea continue to weigh on global wheat prices. The average world FOB price has decreased $32/MT from the start of 2024 and is nearly $255/MT less than the May 2022 high, according to AgriCensus price data. Although the war still rages in Ukraine, the war risk premium has eroded in the market, allowing prices to revert to pre-war trends. The following will outline the current price situation and highlight factors to watch as wheat markets align with long-term trends.

Farmers across Europe have taken to the streets this year, convinced that cheap Ukrainian produce spilling over the border is to blame for their woes. The mass protests have forced EU governments from Warsaw to Paris to make huge concessions to farmers, and have sent Kyiv’s political ties with its Western allies spiraling to their weakest since Russia’s full-scale invasion over two years ago. The main reason why EU farmers can’t sell their own goods this year has nothing to do with Ukraine and its huge agricultural sector. Instead, it is Russia, whose own record farm output — and world-beating exports — have driven crop prices down to the point where farmers everywhere are hurting.

China recently canceled several orders of wheat from various countries, including the U.S. China canceled more than 500,000 metric tons of U.S. soft red winter wheat contracts purchased this year, said Tyllor Ledford, market analyst at U.S. Wheat Associates. China also canceled more than 1 million metric tons of contracts with Australia and 500,000 metric tons of wheat from France. "We are seeing something that no one in the industry wants to see," said Steve Mercer, vice president of communications for U.S. Wheat, the overseas marketing arm for the industry. "It is very disappointing to see China canceling huge volumes of U.S. wheat commercial sales."

Wheat quality improvement is at the heart of the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) mission to enhance the value of U.S. wheat for overseas customers and profitability for U.S. wheat producers. Improved quality makes U.S. wheat more competitive in global markets and, in turn, increased demand benefits producers at home. USW cooperates with stakeholders across the domestic and international industries to encourage U.S. wheat quality improvement.