Following a year of unfavorable weather in many parts of the nation, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an avian flu outbreak and the high commodity prices they created, this year will bring lower commodity prices, farm income and food price inflation, economists at the Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri project. “What goes up, generally comes back down in agricultural markets,” said Pat Westhoff, the institute director. “Projected prices for most crops, poultry and dairy products all retreat in 2023 from recent peaks, and so do some production expenses,” he said.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has struck a major blow to global markets for vital commodities—particularly grains like wheat and maize. Shortages and price increases are contributing to the food insecurity crisis in certain parts of the world, according to the United Nations, and to more general economic uncertainty. A new study led by Adam Rose, research professor at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy and its Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies (CREATE), estimates that disruption to exports of grain commodities during a projected one-year period of the war will result in a $1.6 billion loss for the global economy.

Wheat producers in Idaho expect to plant 1.20 million acres of wheat for harvest this year, up 3 percent from 2022. Winter wheat acres planted are estimated at 770,000 acres, unchanged from last year. Planted acres of Durum wheat in Idaho, are estimated at 5,000 for 2023, down 29 percent from the previous year. Spring wheat planted acres, excluding Durum, are expected to total 420,000 acres, up 11 percent from last year. Total acres planted to winter wheat in Oregon are estimated at 750,000 acres for 2023, up 3 percent from 2022. Washington is estimated to have 2.24 million total acres planted to wheat in 2023, down 4 percent from last year.

Did you know about half of all wheat grown in the U.S. is exported? USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) estimates 21 million metric tons of wheat was shipped out of U.S. ports in 2022, totaling $8.49 billion. The Mississippi and Columbia-Snake rivers help push grain by barge to export facilities in the Gulf and Pacific Northwest. However, the region between these two rivers instead relies heavily on rail to move grain, with USDA finding 50% to 60% of all wheat exports from 2014 to 2019 were moved to ports by rail.

Although the United States remains one of the six major global wheat exporters, our market share has been trending lower for the past 22 years. Over the past decade, the United States has given up market share to competitors such as Canada, the EU, Russia, Ukraine, and Australia. Drought and grower preference for crops offering superior returns per acre, such as corn, soybeans, canola, and pulses, may further reduce US wheat production and exports in the future.

Admiration for her fellow farmers inspired Jamie Kress to seek to represent them as an officer in the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG). Kress joined the NAWG board as secretary during the Commodity Classic last month in Orlando, Fla. She will move through the organization’s leadership positions during the coming years. The connections she developed through the Idaho Grain Producers Association have helped put “faces to the stories,” Kress said.

The outlook for Idaho agriculture is bright. Agriculture, especially milk and beef products, is now the leading export for the state. Idaho Department of Agriculture (ISDA) has seen an increase in hops production, and Idaho’s gross domestic product (GPD) is up 120%. Dr. Garth Taylor, of the University of Idaho (U of I), an agricultural economist, gave a presentation before the House Agricultural Committee on the booming financial condition of Idaho agriculture for 2022. Chanel Tewalt, the new director of ISDA, also spoke before the committee on ISDA affairs.