Peter Laudeman, US Wheat Associates director of trade policy, has spent a lot of time on the US International Food Aid Program. He says a program takes surplus commodities and donates them to other countries that have dire hunger situations. He points out that the 2023 Farm Bill does have a section for food aid and US Wheat wants to ensure that wheat does not lose its place in food aid donations. “What we've seen over kind of the life of these international food assistance programs is a shift from what used to be about 100% donated US commodity to commodities to those in need. And now we've kind of chipped away over a series of barbells.."

The seasonal return of the US Department of Agriculture’s weekly national Crop Progress report revealed the condition of the US winter wheat crop deteriorated over the months of dormancy since the report went into hibernation last fall. The USDA on April 3 issued its first national Crop Progress report since Nov. 27, 2022. The report compiles information some state USDA offices had started issuing a few weeks earlier with new data for a comprehensive report for the 18 major winter wheat growing states. Winter wheat, which was seeded last fall for harvest in 2023, conditions were in worse shape than in the final report of 2022 (for the 2023 crop) and compared with the 2022 US crop as it emerged from dormancy a year earlier.

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and the National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) today praised the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) for submitting a counter-notification on India’s wheat and rice subsidies to the WTO April 6, 2023. The filing on the WTO website can be seen here. Like another filing on the same commodities in 2018, this U.S. counter-notification shows India does not report the true level of support it provides to its farmers. Unlike the 2018 counter-notification, five other wheat or rice exporter countries joined the United States in this filing: Australia; Canada; Paraguay; Thailand; and Ukraine.

Over the last few weeks, U.S. Wheat Associates has analyzed several factors that are shifting or have the potential to shift U.S. wheat value toward wheat importers. A combination of lower futures prices, a break in dry bulk freight prices, an increase in planted area, and the potential for a weaker dollar all point to a wheat market that has turned to favor buyers after two years of price risk. Though it is the most unpredictable of all the factors influencing U.S. wheat prices, the weather is arguably the most critical component in determining U.S. wheat production and price.

Following a year of unfavorable weather in many parts of the nation, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an avian flu outbreak and the high commodity prices they created, this year will bring lower commodity prices, farm income and food price inflation, economists at the Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri project. “What goes up, generally comes back down in agricultural markets,” said Pat Westhoff, the institute director. “Projected prices for most crops, poultry and dairy products all retreat in 2023 from recent peaks, and so do some production expenses,” he said.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has struck a major blow to global markets for vital commodities—particularly grains like wheat and maize. Shortages and price increases are contributing to the food insecurity crisis in certain parts of the world, according to the United Nations, and to more general economic uncertainty. A new study led by Adam Rose, research professor at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy and its Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies (CREATE), estimates that disruption to exports of grain commodities during a projected one-year period of the war will result in a $1.6 billion loss for the global economy.

Wheat producers in Idaho expect to plant 1.20 million acres of wheat for harvest this year, up 3 percent from 2022. Winter wheat acres planted are estimated at 770,000 acres, unchanged from last year. Planted acres of Durum wheat in Idaho, are estimated at 5,000 for 2023, down 29 percent from the previous year. Spring wheat planted acres, excluding Durum, are expected to total 420,000 acres, up 11 percent from last year. Total acres planted to winter wheat in Oregon are estimated at 750,000 acres for 2023, up 3 percent from 2022. Washington is estimated to have 2.24 million total acres planted to wheat in 2023, down 4 percent from last year.