Tight Global Wheat Story is Stuck on Repeat, Supporting Market Bears

Chicago wheat futures this week hit their lowest levels in almost three years, yet relative to demand, exportable global wheat supplies are expected to approach historic minimums by mid-2024. In theory, that news should limit further slippage in world wheat prices, but there is one problem: this is a recurring story that has yet to become reality. Russia’s early 2022 invasion of Ukraine sent wheat prices to new highs as the two countries account for nearly 30% of global exports. Concerns over Ukraine’s production and export potential have lingered ever since, though this has largely been a bearish factor for prices rather than a bullish one.

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