A new paper on food security submitted by the United States at the World Trade Organization (WTO) has to date received little attention but it could signify a meaningful shift in dealing with agriculture issues at the WTO. That paper, entitled “The World Trade Organization’s Role in Enhancing Food Security” suggests that facilitating rules- and science-based trade should be the basis for building global food security. The concept sets up a new approach to discussing food security issues that will span multiple areas of jurisdiction.

Farmers and independent seed businesses have long expressed concern over concentration and consolidation in agriculture, including seed and ag inputs. Competition in the marketplace, diversity of choice, and regional commitments are important to a healthy ag industry. In 2021, an Executive Order was issued instructing the Secretary of Agriculture to report on concerns and strategies to ensure that intellectual property systems (IP), including Patents, while incentivizing innovation, do not unnecessarily reduce competition in the seed and input markets.

The US Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service recently estimated the total U.S. 2023-2024 wheat planted area will be 49.9 million acres. That’s up nine percent from the previous year and would be the highest total since 2016-2017. The total winter wheat area is projected up 13 percent as high prices and strong profitability provides major incentives to plant. Hard Red Winter Wheat is projected up 13 percent to 26 million acres, even higher than the January 12 forecast. HRW production regions continue to be impacted by drought, which is likely to affect harvested area and yield. Soft Red Winter Wheat plantings are forecast up 19 percent from the previous year to 7.8 million acres, slightly below the January forecast.

Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is causing a global shift in the trading of grains — which feed billions of people every day — and Ukraine’s harvest this year could plummet by as much as 50% compared to before the war. “Trade flows change and fluctuate, they always have,” said Andrew Whitelaw, co-founder and director of Episode 3, an agricultural analysis firm. “Bearing in mind that 20-odd years ago, Russia wasn’t an important exporter of grains … It’s grown in the last 20 years [and] Ukraine and Russia have now become the top exporters.”

Ukraine’s ability to keep exporting wheat, corn and other ag commodities under the threatened Black Sea Grain Initiative will be a major focus when world ag leaders meet later this week in Japan for a summit of G7 agriculture ministers, says USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, who will be attending. “I fully expect … that there will be an extended conversation about the Black Sea Grain Initiative and key support for (Odesa ports to) be open and to express deep concern for any effort on the part of Russia to interfere with the ability of Ukrainian grain to get to countries in Africa and elsewhere,” Vilsack told reporters Wednesday.

Spring wheat prices have been trying to find some traction recently, but they seem to still be locked in an upper $8 trading range on futures. “The three main factors impacting the market – or shifting direction from time to time – are still concerns about potential planting delays in the spring wheat region, the uncertain future of the Black Sea grain deal, and hard red winter wheat crop condition ratings,” said Jim Peterson, market director for the North Dakota Wheat Commission. “Those seem to be the three big factors that are impacting price trends.”

Wheat and corn exports out of the Black Sea region are at risk again. Ukrainian officials say Russia’s recent actions to block inspections of ships under the Black Sea grain initiative means the grain deal is facing a murky future. That’s as the area was still able to see record wheat exports over the past year, despite the war, largely thanks to the grain deal ensuring grain exports continued to flow out of the area.