Scarred by high and volatile prices, global wheat buyers are reducing their purchases of future supplies but that raises their exposure to potential price spikes that would end up passed on to consumers already struggling with food inflation. Buyers in key importers across Asia, the Middle East and Africa are making so-called forward purchases of supplies for only about two to three months of their future demand versus typical buying of up to six months, according to millers, analysts and traders.

Competitive supplies from Ukraine to Southern regions of Europe, combined with the impact of dry conditions at the end of last season (2021/22) have meant EU wheat import demand has been strong so far this season. However, Stratégie Grains said in their February grain report that they are expecting the pace of EU imports to slow down throughout the rest of the season. This comes as Black Sea exports coming through the secure shipping corridor seem to be losing momentum, and EU feed demand remains subdued.

The USDA announced the agricultural sector had the best export year in 2022, with international sales of U.S. farm and food products reaching $196 billion. The value of sales increased in all of the United States’ top 10 agricultural export markets – China, Mexico, Canada, Japan, the European Union, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Colombia and Vietnam, with sales in seven of the 10 markets (China, Mexico, Canada, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Colombia) setting new records.

Some of 2022’s volatility is gone, but low carryover of wheat stocks and uncertainties are expected to keep prices relatively high as farmers enter the new year. That was the prediction Wednesday from Norm Ruhoff, a clinical assistant professor at the University of Idaho.

The 2023 Direct Seed Workshop will feature podcaster and Twitter personality Peter Johnson, "Wheat Pete" from Canada. Join us as we chat about harvest timing, residue spread, risk management and marketing strategies for producers. Register early and save!

The Idaho Wheat Commission (IWC) takes a wheat variety survey twice a year, spring and winter, to gather data on variety usage.

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