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Indonesia and Bangladesh, two major buyers of Canadian wheat, have signed agreements to significantly increase U.S. wheat imports—raising concerns for Canadian exporters. Indonesia will purchase one million tonnes annually, mostly soft wheat, while Bangladesh committed to 700,000 tonnes, directly competing with Canada’s hard red spring wheat. U.S. talks with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand add to the uncertainty, though Cereals Canada hopes its strengthened presence in the Indo-Pacific will help protect Canada’s market share.

Mexico’s growing population and strong feed demand will keep the country a major grain importer in 2025-26, according to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Wheat production is projected to fall 34% to just 1.7 million tons due to drought and low reservoir levels, pushing imports up 18% to 6.5 million tons. The U.S. remains Mexico’s top wheat supplier, with its market share climbing to 75%. Wheat consumption is forecast to increase 1% to 8.1 million tons, supported by population growth and tourism-related demand for bread, pasta, and baked goods. Mexico’s limited production capacity and rising consumption will sustain strong demand for U.S. grain exports, particularly wheat, corn, rice, and sorghum.

Leslie Edgar, the new J.R. Simplot endowed dean of the University of Idaho’s College of Agricultural and Life Sciences (CALS), is on a statewide listening tour, meeting with wheat growers and other stakeholders to understand their challenges and explore how the university can better support them through teaching, research, and Extension. Much of the wheat research conducted at U of I is funded by grower assessment dollars, focusing on solutions to on-farm problems. These investments support developing new wheat varieties, improving disease and pest management, evaluating soil health, and sustainability practices. Dean Edgar aims to “innovate Idaho” by ensuring university research delivers practical benefits—helping producers maximize profitability, strengthening rural communities, and serving the broader public.

A federal appeals court recently struck down the current administration’s use of “reciprocal tariffs” under an economic emergency declaration, but the ruling was paused pending Supreme Court review. The Court is moving quickly, with briefs beginning this week and oral arguments in November. For U.S. wheat, the case is unlikely to significantly affect exports or customer relationships. Reciprocal tariffs have had little direct impact on wheat, with China being the only importer to impose retaliatory tariffs — and its wheat trade with the U.S. ended before those tariffs were enacted. If reciprocal tariffs are repealed, benefits gained in markets like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Bangladesh are expected to remain, as these countries continue seeking ways to reduce trade deficits with the U.S.