IDAHO WHEAT COMMISSION

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Idaho researcher helps develop promising alternative commodity price predictive model

Xiaoli Etienne, Idaho Wheat Commission endowed chair in commodity risk management, helped to create a commodity markets forecasting model that rivals USDA’s two preferred models at predicting corn prices. The alternative model uses only publicly available data, unlike the agency’s go-to forecast, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, which Etienne describes as using a “black box” model -- WASDE reports released monthly based on a top-secret equation and private data, including global market factors often unknown by the public.  USDA’s WASDE forecast has major implications, as it can influence markets and producers’ planting decisions and is used for calculating government payment programs.  The new alternative model slightly outperforms WASDE from January through April.

Read more about the predictive model here