 |
 |
| Scouts Should See High-Quality Wheat; Will Watch for Rust |
Katie Micik DTN Wire Editor
|
The 2010 hard red winter wheat tour should see a crop that's in great condition, although stripe and leaf rust have been reported across most of central Kansas.
Last year, crop scouts estimated the average yield for Kansas wheat at about 40 bushels per acre. This year's average could be considerably higher, according to Ben Handcock, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council. (DTN file photo by Greg Horstmeier)"Well, from everything I've heard, we're gonna see some awfully good-looking wheat," said Ben Handcock, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council, which organizes the annual scouting tour. He said all parts of the hard red winter wheat belt should see an outstanding crop as long as the weather cooperates and disease is contained.
"Last year, we had on the tour about a 40-bushel-per-acre average. I think we'll be above that considerably this year," Handcock said. A Reuters survey of 10 traders showed an average estimated yield of 44.2 bushels per acre for 2010.
Texas wheat came through the winter better than last year, and Oklahoma's crop, which was heavily freeze-damaged last year, is better too, Handcock said. The April 25 USDA crop progress report rated Kansas's crop as 73 percent in good-to-excellent condition. Nationally, the winter wheat crop is 69 percent in good-to-excellent condition and 25 percent fair condition.
At this time last year, crop conditions were varied with drought, flood and freeze damage and everything in between. Nationally, the crop was rated only 45 percent good to excellent, and 27 percent of the crop was rated poor to very poor.
"The issue is we're going to see less wheat because less acres were planted, but I would guess the yield will be higher," Handcock said.
USDA estimates 37.1 million acres of winter wheat were planted in the U.S. this year, down from 43.3 million acres last year. Kansas farmers sowed 8.6 million acres of wheat, which is less than the prior year's 9.3 million acres.
The 69 scout participants -- made up of millers, traders, agronomists, media and other wheat industry representatives -- will fan out across Kansas, southern Nebraska and northern Oklahoma. It's the largest group of scouts in the tour's history.
"We'll have a pretty good handle of it (how the wheat looks) after we've stopped in about 500 fields," Handcock said. It's the most fields he's ever hoped to measure on a tour.
Scouts will be on the lookout for leaf and stripe rust, low levels of which have been spotted in most of central Kansas, said Kansas State University plant pathologist Erick De Wolf.
He said the current low levels are treatable with fungicides, if farmers chose to apply them, but he said he expects the fungal disease to be found in more fields in the coming weeks.
"At levels now, I would say there are causes for concern, but the potential damage to the crop depends largely on weather," he said. Cool temperatures and abundant rainfall will fuel the severity of disease and make it more difficult for farmers to apply fungicide.
Leaf and stripe rust affect the plants' leaves, limiting photosynthesis and their ability to produce carbohydrates. This usually results in lower-test-weight wheat, De Wolf said.
"They (rusts) can be serious if they get here early enough," Handcock said. "But we always hear this every year. They figure out a reason to kill the wheat crop every year. I'm not saying it isn't there, but I think if it was really serious, I'd have heard more about it."
In the evenings, the tour participants will pool their data on conditions and yield potential. On Thursday, the Wheat Quality Council will release its overall production estimate. USDA will release its first production estimates on May 11.
DTN will carry daily updates following the nightly meetings. You can also follow KatieMDTN on Twitter for live updates from the field.
|
|
